The Social Democrats gather in UCD this weekend for the party’s annual conference and face some big decisions on the horizon.
It’s been less than a year since Holly Cairns was elected unopposed as party leader, replacing co-leaders Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy. The arrival of a new, younger, smarter and more photogenic Cairns has piqued the interest of some voters, and there have been early signs of a ‘holy hop’. But that quickly evaporated, with last week’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll showing support for the party had risen by two points to 5%, but overall the party had fallen between 3 and 5% since last time. % range. election. This is the precipice that small parties often find themselves in, between breakthrough (as the Greens did in the last election) and disaster (as the Greens lost all their seats the last time they were in power). It is located in between. It depends on whether a handful of strong candidates survive in a handful of constituencies. They live on the border, which isn’t as exciting as it sounds.
Nevertheless, small parties in the Irish system often exert significant influence over the governments in charge of them. The Progressive Democrats did it. Workers used to do it. The Greens are doing just that, winning more than a dozen seats in exchange for disproportionate influence over government policy and planning. Do you think Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would have taken such action on climate change if they had been in power with anyone else? Yes, that’s right.
[ Holly Cairns interview: An end to ‘tried-tested-failed’ politics? Soc Dems leader pitches for change ]
All parties, including the Social Democrats, are at a decisive point in the election cycle, and it will soon be time for people to start making up their minds about things. I think there are three important questions that social democrats must answer. This weekend is the perfect time to start.
Question 1: Does the party want to come to power?
Politicians may all want to be part of the government. That’s wrong. Many members of the Dail have no intention of becoming part of the government. Because they know that being the independent leader of a small party or coalition often has a significant impact on seats. Some smaller parties (usually those with a strong ideological identity, such as the Greens or the PD) are ready to pay that price, or at least risk paying that price. But many others don’t. For example, it is unlikely that any conceivable government would be socialist enough to allow people to participate before they can benefit.
[ Holly Cairns: ‘They say rural Ireland is so conservative. It’s not true and it’s kind of insulting’ ]
In Ireland, a government is no longer formed immediately after a general election, as in the past. Instead, the party system is fragmented, and it now takes months to form a coalition government. In 2016 and again in 2020, the Social Democrats made no serious effort to engage in these discussions, in part because doing so meant engaging with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. It was meant to mean something. We know that the party wants a coalition government without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. And maybe it will happen. But unless that happens, and the current polls do not favor the party significantly, the party will once again face the FF-FG problem. Actually, the problem is he has two. Is the party prepared to engage in such a discussion, and if so, what are its red line demands to avoid? In other words, what is the price for Cairns to join the coalition?
Question 2: Where do we get the extra votes we need?
Cairns and his colleagues effectively criticize the government on a range of issues. But whatever the Greens do – a more realistic target – they are unlikely to win many votes from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. The problem is that there is a large amount of broad anti-government votes, and the competition for those votes is intense. Since the last election, Sinn Féin has continued to corner them, giving the party a commanding lead in the polls it has enjoyed for many years.
But last week’s polls suggest something new is afoot, perhaps a rift between populists and progressives who support Sinn Féin. If this trend continues, it suggests that the Social Democrats could steal some votes from the big parties if they have the strength to go after them.
Question 3: Should we merge with the Labor Party?
Social Democratic Party leaders are reluctant to be asked about merging with the Labor Party. I think that’s partly because they get asked all the time, but partly because they know the reasons against it aren’t very good. I think you can phrase the question differently. Is the party interested in building a social democratic force in Irish politics that applies its principles to government, or is it simply interested in building a social democratic party? If they are interested in the former, they would be open to working with Labor or an independent centre-left TD – not necessarily a merger, but certainly some form of alliance.
But there are plenty of social democratic candidates who could leverage the Labor vote, and vice versa. And the center-left bloc, which has 15 seats, will certainly become a strong candidate after the next election, if it chooses to do so.
In Ireland’s highly localized and individualized politics, personalities always complicate things, but personalities change and change their minds. Party founders don’t exist forever. There are always challenges. But there are plenty of social democratic candidates who could leverage the Labor vote, and vice versa. And if it wants, the 15-seat centre-left bloc will certainly be the favorite after the next election.
[ If Labour or Social Democrats – or both – have bad general election, merger speculation will intensify ]
I don’t know what the correct answer is to any of these three questions. But I am convinced that how the party develops in the future depends on how we answer them.
Political warning
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