More than 40% of adults in the United States are obese. This is a big number, and a force to be reckoned with when a group’s habits suddenly begin to change. Many Wall Street analysts have been studying the impact of new weight loss drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic on industries ranging from real estate to medical devices to food and beverage companies. That’s what I’ve seen. Many of these exercises are theoretical, with the caveat that it may take some time before they are implemented in the market. But maybe not. Bank of America’s trading desk detailed a recent meeting with Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey on Tuesday, saying the retailer already has customers using GLP-1 drugs. It was revealed that there has been a decrease in food consumption. Sales of health and fitness products such as yoga mats and sports apparel are also on the rise. Still in early stages These comments come as he has written more than 9 million prescriptions for this class of drugs, which also treat type 2 diabetes, according to Trilliant Health. Although we have made significant profits, we have only scratched the surface of the potential market. NVO YTD Mountain Novo Nordisk stock is up 34% since the start of 2023. Manufacturing constraints limit supply, leading to periodic stockouts. For some potential patients, their health insurance plans do not yet cover expensive medications. (For example, federal health insurance does not allow coverage for weight loss drugs, so people who want to use GLP-1 drugs to treat obesity will not be covered even if they have Medicare coverage. ) Also shown is Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. It is intended to help patients lose 20% of their body weight during clinical trials, but it has not yet been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for weight loss. Analysts predict that could happen by the end of the year. This drug is currently marketed as a treatment for type 2 diabetes. Walmart told Bank of America that second-quarter sales benefited about 1% from GLP-1 drug sales. “While this is a low-margin business, there is potential for some improvement in profitability early next year as long-term contracts are reviewed,” Bank of America said in an email. All of this means that the ripple effects of taking the drug only increase over time. Walmart’s comments are important because Walmart can use internal data to connect customers who take medications with their actual shopping patterns. LLY YTD Mountain Eli Lilly stock is up nearly 49% year-to-date. Morgan Stanley predicted in August that the use of GLP-1 drugs could reduce U.S. calorie consumption by 1.3% by 2035. Analysts say people taking the drug cut their calorie intake by 20% and ate fewer meals and snacks by 30%. They also hypothesized that these same consumers would be more likely to purchase luxury foods and drinks. Analysts at the company then dug deeper, using data from market research firm Numerator Insights, and found that processed foods, typically placed in the center of a store, disproportionately increased indicators of obesity among shoppers. Indicated. And these are exactly the types of foods people eliminate when trying to lose weight. This trend has implications for investors, as seen clearly in stocks of medical device companies such as insulin pump maker Insulet. The company’s stock price has fallen 45% since the beginning of the year on concerns that these drugs will reduce the company’s market potential. Other stocks in the sector are following a similar pattern. “New GLP-1 consensus estimates suggest small headwinds in U.S. obesity and diabetes prevalence.” [compound annual growth rates,] This is important because these are major risk factors for device-intensive diseases such as osteoarthritis, coronary artery disease, and sleep apnea,” said Larry, Wells Fargo analyst.・Biegelsen said in a research note on Tuesday. According to Biegelsen, consensus estimates suggest that 8.3 million people will be taking GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes in 2030, or 5.1 people.He said, “The potential market penetration for this drug is %. About half will be taking this drug for obesity. If all obese patients receiving GLP-1 are no longer obese.” The CAGR of obese patients in the US from 2023 to 2030 would decrease by 40% if [basis points] Daniel Lyons, portfolio manager and healthcare industry research analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, told CNBC that he expects “downstream impacts will take years to move through the system.” He said he was there. “Lyons cited the use of statins, which are used to lower cholesterol, as an example of how things play out over time. “Have we completely cured heart disease?” Although these drugs are widely prescribed and helpful, not everyone who would benefit is receiving the treatment.—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.