Commission releases new tool to help predict and adapt to sectoral drought impacts

A new forecasting and foresight tool has been published by the European Commission to strengthen the EU’s preparedness to combat drought and water scarcity. Two tools, the European Drought Impact Database and the European Drought Risk Atlas, which are publicly available as part of the European Drought Observatory’s water scarcity and drought risk assessments.

The European Drought Impacts database contains a compilation of data on drought impacts from 1977 to 2022. The Drought Risk Atlas uses machine learning to simulate the future impacts of +1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius temperature increases. . The projections, produced by scientists at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, show which regions of the European Union will be more water-stressed than others, and which economic sectors and sub-sectors will be most affected. .

Drought becomes ‘new normal’ in some regions

Projections suggest that droughts will occur significantly more frequently than in the past. Climate change has a direct impact on the frequency and intensity of precipitation. Water scarcity is likely to increase significantly, especially in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. Sectors and regions will be affected differently. Due to increased drought risk, yields of certain crops may decline significantly, especially in southern and parts of Western Europe, although they remain more sustainable in northern regions of Europe. However, the forecast also suggests that public water supplies, including drinking water, could be under pressure in Nordic countries such as Sweden and Finland. In the energy sector, lower river levels could make cooling nuclear power plants more difficult in France, while drought risks for inland navigation remain significantly high in Germany and could increase in the Danube region. There is sex.

natural ecosystems will suffer

Water scarcity and drought have negative effects on nature. Projections suggest that the health of both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems will be affected by rainfall deficits. The Copernicus European Drought Observatory is hosted by the Joint Research Center and contributes to EU action to improve resilience and adapt to drought.

To make Europe water resilient, we first need to better understand drought risks. Advance warning requires advance preparation, and these new tools do just that. However, the causes of water shortages are often human-induced. We must all act to stop illegal groundwater pumping, reduce river pollution and increase water efficiency.

Virginius Sinkevicius, Commissioner for the Environment, Oceans and Fisheries

Drought affects all EU regions and has significant impacts on human lives, ecosystems, agriculture, employment and transport. Mapping drought risk helps identify vulnerable areas and predict and understand droughts. The Commission Joint Research Center plays a major role in the protection of citizens and the environment thanks to the scientific and analytical work it continuously provides.