Teachers returning to work next month will face worrying “behavioral bubbles” as the younger children most affected by the pandemic reach their teenage years, a time when classroom disruptions are notorious for peaking.
The warning from experts and school chiefs in England comes amid evidence showing children who were primary school students when schools were closed to most pupils during the pandemic are being expelled or suspended at record rates since moving on to secondary school.
The latest official figures for the 2022-23 school year show the fastest increase in expulsions and suspensions was among students in the “bubble” of grades seven and eight. These students then move on to grades ninth and 10, when sanctions for misbehavior are traditionally the toughest.
Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teachers' union, said there was “no doubt” that deterioration in behaviour levels had escalated to a crisis since the pandemic and warned it could get even worse.
“In the aftermath of the riots in many towns and cities over the summer, it is also necessary for governments and other agencies to work with schools and colleges to support vulnerable young people who are at risk of becoming involved in violence,” Roach said.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the failures of government policy but has also amplified them as an increasing number of teachers report being yelled at, threatened, shoved, kicked, bitten, punched and attacked by students armed with weapons,” he added.
A Government source said: “A succession of Conservative ministers in recent years has failed to curb the pre-pandemic rise in misbehaviour and told children and their families that support for the Covid recovery has 'reaked its fill'. The new Government will work hard to tackle much of the underlying misbehaviour that is plaguing our schools with a support-first approach and take back control of the classroom.”
The latest behavioural data published by the Department for Education (DfE) for state schools in England shows that the proportion of year 7 pupils who received at least one suspension rose from 3.5% in the year before the pandemic to 5.5% in 2022-23, while the proportion of year 8 pupils who were suspended rose from 5.5% to more than 8%.
Among upper grade students in ninth and 10th grades, nearly 10% received at least one suspension in the 2022-23 school year, also well above pre-pandemic levels.
Even more worrying, secondary school dropout rates rose sharply among students in grades 7 and 8, particularly among girls. Before and during the pandemic, three boys dropped out for every girl, but in 2022-23 that ratio has risen to almost two-to-one, with an increase of 1,000 girls dropping out compared to 2018-19.
Andrew Smith, a secondary school teacher and blogger, noted there was an increasing trend of exclusion among younger pupils and girls, and said: “Next year's years nine and ten may be the most challenging for years, but that may depend on how well schools deal with these pupils' behaviour whilst they are in secondary school.”
A Department for Education spokesman said: “The increase in suspensions and permanent expulsions is shocking and shows the scale of disruptive behaviour that has occurred in schools across the country in recent years and is damaging children's life chances.
“We are determined to get to the roots of poor behaviour and have already committed to providing access to specialist mental health professionals in every school, introducing free breakfast clubs in all primary schools and ensuring earlier intervention in mainstream schools for pupils with special needs.”
“But we know that bad behaviour can also be rooted in wider issues, which is why the Government is developing an ambitious strategy to break down barriers to opportunity and reduce child poverty, led by a task force co-chaired by the Education Secretary.
Tom Bennett, behaviour adviser to the Department for Education, said: “The idea of ​​'behaviour bubbles' moving up the pipe is plausible but not certain. I suspect it's quite possible that the experience of learning from home during lockdown has led to a decline in some social skills. This, like school absenteeism, will be disproportionately concentrated in subgroups who are already most at risk of behavioural problems.”
“But there's no guarantee they'll remain in this state of disorganization forever. For example, returning to school may help them readjust to the socialization effects. These effects may not persist in environments with structure and boundaries.”
“On the other hand, the effects could be lasting, expanding the bubble and, combined with the effects of adolescence, could well create a worst-case scenario.”
While an increase in poverty and special needs pupils may be contributing to the recent rise in sanctions, primary school and Year 11 dropout rates remain at or below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the disruptions experienced by pupils moving on to secondary school are having a larger impact.
Lee Wilson, chief executive of Outwood Grange Academy Trust, said: “The effects of Covid-19 are still being felt in many parts of our society. Lockdowns and school closures have led to lower achievement across the country, falling attendance and poor behaviour, particularly among disadvantaged children and in schools that were already struggling or in the early stages of change.”
Bennett added: “I think the disruption of the pandemic and, I hate to say it, our increased reliance on social media and smartphones has de-socialized young people and given them more of their attention and cognitive capacity to activities that are essentially frivolous and unrewarding.”
Pepe Diacio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said behavioural issues affecting children in the younger years could continue to be a challenge as they progressed to school.
“The sad reality is that our schools and our children have been let down by more than a decade of underfunding, both in education and in the wider network of community services. This is the result,” Mr DiYassio said.