The creation of a new political post to oversee major social spending programs will cause a change in the balance of power within the Russian bureaucracy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s social spending pledges in his State of the Union address in February suggest that at least one Russian official will take an influential new job. The lucky one will probably be either a Deputy Prime Minister or a Special Coordinator, with expanded powers. Either way, they will have regular access to the president, the opportunity to spend large sums of money, and the tools to shape their public image. This would automatically create an alternative center of power within the government.
President Putin has not made any campaign promises ahead of the Russian presidential election in March. Instead, he will announce five new “national projects” in his State of the Union address: “Human Resources,” “Russian Youth,” “Family,” “Long and Active Life,” and “Data Economy.” did. Four of his proposals are clearly socially oriented, including the construction and modernization of schools, universities, and hospitals, as well as subsidized housing loans, social benefits for families, and salary increases for state employees.
The reason is obvious. The Kremlin derives the greatest political benefits from social spending. People always take notice when a local school or hospital gets renovated. Of course, the governor and the ruling United Russia Party benefit from these projects, but the main beneficiary is President Putin.
The new national project will also benefit everyone involved in its implementation, especially the deputy prime minister in charge of social affairs. The post is currently held by Tatyana Golikova, but she will likely be asked to resign and be replaced after this month’s presidential election. To a lesser extent, the deputy prime minister in charge of industry and construction will also be involved.
There are several potential benefits for these managers. First, by manipulating the bidding process, they can choose to award contracts to “friendly” companies that are suitable for them to work with. Second, they will have access to President Putin, who is likely to host regular meetings in public and private on the implementation of national projects. That happened in 2005 when Russia’s first four national projects were launched.
Close contacts with President Putin are an invaluable resource in Russian power circles, offering financial and political rewards that often outweigh formal positions. The best example is Dmitry Medvedev, who was appointed to oversee the national project for the first time in 2005. Medvedev, who was deputy prime minister at the time, was chosen by President Putin to succeed him three years later.
It will also be easier for people in charge of national projects to promote themselves. Sure, they could position themselves as some kind of unworldly person dispensing cash from a magical money tree. Any problem can be blamed on those in government who are directly responsible for the economy. This post will be an ideal opportunity to promote your personal brand.
Of course, whoever gets the job will have to be careful not to appear to be offering more money than Putin. But it is clearly possible to have your own personal brand in Russian politics. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, for example, has cultivated an image of himself as a professional operator, someone who can use slang in his conversations with ministers and pat them on the back. The profile of Sergei Kiriyenko, the Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff for internal affairs, is described as a “lord of Donbass” who inspects social infrastructure in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine and distributes large sums of money in pensions and pensions. It is. Salary.
Indeed, Kiriyenko is clearly the frontrunner for the post of deputy prime minister, which oversees socially focused national projects. In addition to being deeply involved in occupied Ukraine’s social affairs, he previously headed Rosatom, the state nuclear company that runs many social projects, and briefly served as prime minister in the 1990s. He also worked closely with the government’s Ministry of Social Affairs, helping develop the ideological elements of the Russian school curriculum and the university’s new “Fundamentals of the Russian State” course, and organizing major conferences and forums.
Of course, there are other candidates. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev, who is also the special presidential envoy for the Far East, has been overseeing social infrastructure projects in the region for many years. Marat Husnulin, one of Putin’s favorites, regularly updates the president on the success of ambitious infrastructure projects. There is also Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, who oversees digitalization and sports and enjoys Putin’s goodwill. But there is no one more qualified than Kiriyenko.
In any case, the creation of a new deputy prime minister position will cause a major change in the balance of power within the Russian bureaucracy. Given Mr. Medevdev’s elevation from national project to president, this appointment will likely mean that elites will start thinking about possible successors to Mr. Putin. Those who take on the job will inevitably be seen in a new light. Moreover, the creation of a new center of influence within the government is likely to create a conflict with the prime minister, who is required to raise funds.
President Putin has long avoided making major changes in senior Russian officials to avoid speculation about the transition or succession. But now he has little choice but to empower major new political players.
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