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“This is a first step,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told Fox News shortly after the debt ceiling deal, hinting at plans to form a bipartisan commission.
McCarthy said “mandatory spending is the driving force behind most of the budget,” including Social Security, Medicare and debt interest, which were off the table in debt ceiling negotiations.
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The idea of āāestablishing a commission to review social security is not new. In 1983, a commission led by Alan Greenspan, who later became chairman of the Federal Reserve System, issued a report that became the basis for the Social Security Act.
Social Security reform has been on Congress’ to-do list for years. But the latest estimates by the program’s governing board show the situation has become more urgent.
The program’s combined funds are scheduled to run out in 2034, a year earlier than previously expected, at which point 80% of benefits will be paid, the program’s governing board said in March. Announced. But the funds used to pay for retirement benefits are scheduled to be depleted even faster, in just 10 years, in 2033, the trustees say.
Other Republicans are also calling for a commission.
In January, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.) joined the Bipartisan Society in calling for the creation of a bipartisan commission to provide recommendations to improve the program. Reintroduced a bill entitled the Guarantee Commission Act.
Cole has been the bill’s lead sponsor for six consecutive Congresses.
“It’s time for Congress to get serious about this issue,” Cole said in a statement when he reintroduced the bill in January. “You’re going to be at risk.”
Democrats are proposing a bill that would expand the program by raising taxes on high-income earners and making benefits more generous. On the other hand, many Republicans oppose tax increases.
Supporters of bipartisan commissions argue that this approach could help smooth out differences between political parties. But whether a bipartisan commission is the answer to Social Security’s funding problem is the subject of intense debate.
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A new poll of 1,191 likely voters by Social Security Works and Data for Progress highlights one of the major concerns about this approach. That means that benefits will need to be reduced.
When voters were asked if they supported creating a commission “with the task of cutting some government spending, including Social Security and Medicare,” 72% of respondents said they were opposed. 22% supported it, but 7% said they were unsure. (Numbers do not total 100% due to rounding)
The poll also asked respondents whether they would vote for a member of Congress in 2024 to serve on a committee that recommends cuts to Social Security and Medicare benefits. The results showed that 67% of those surveyed were less likely to vote for their own members. 15% said they were likely to support it, and 18% said it would not influence their decision.
āEven taking the first step to considering possible cuts to Social Security is not what voters want,ā said Daniel Deisseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.
The only reason to have a commission is to hide the necessary cuts.
nancy altman
President of social security office
To be sure, it remains to be seen what recommendations will come from the yet-to-be-established commission.
But Nancy Altman, Greenspan’s assistant when he led the committee and now president of the advocacy group Social Security Works, opposes that approach.
“The only reason we have a committee is to hide the amount of cuts we want,” Altman said.
He said it was “the understanding inside Washington” that benefit cuts had to be on the table.
She noted that when the 1983 changes were enacted, the program was projected to be resolved by 2057. But what actuaries did not foresee at the time was the rise in wealth and income inequality that would occur in the late 1980s and into the 1990s.
Although the Greenspan Commission proposed changes in 1983 to restore the program’s solvency, Altman argues that similar changes, such as raising the retirement age, are inappropriate today.
“I think the American people recognize that increasing revenue from the wealthy is not only good policy, but it’s the right path,” Altman said.
Changes to Social Security will require bipartisan agreement.
“We don’t want Social Security to become a partisan issue,” said Bill Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
āIf this policy is to survive into the next century, it has to be done in a bipartisan way,ā he said.
Hoagland said payroll tax increases that apply to high incomes above the current cap of $160,200 are common.
But this change alone is unlikely to work, especially since issues of the solvency of the Medicare Trust Fund may also require tax increases.
“We could simply raise payroll taxes, but politically that wouldn’t work,” Hoagland said.
He said other changes could be phased in to protect current and near-retirees from drastic changes while protecting low-income people who rely on Social Security. Ta.
He said benefit cuts would likely be considered, including reducing the amount wealthy beneficiaries receive.
It has to be transparent and it has to be open.
bill hoagland
Senior Vice President, Bipartisan Policy Center
Although committees, task forces and task forces have fallen out of favor in recent years, the process was “quite successful” under Greenspan, he said.
A new committee could be formed in such a way that amendments could be considered after proposals have been made.
ā[With] Something important. As important as Social Security is and it affects millions of Americans, it must be transparent and public,” Hoagland said.
Hoagland said lawmakers should start now because the depletion deadline is approaching and time is needed to implement and phase in the recommendations.