According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) for November 2023, mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 21.8% compared to a year ago.
Compared to October 2023, the number of applications decreased by 12%. This change does not include any adjustments to typical seasonal patterns.
“New construction financing has been the only bright spot in a year of weak purchase originations,” said Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at MBA. “This trend continued in November, with applications for new homes increasing by 22% compared to last year, but the overall purchase market is still about 20% behind last year’s pace. It’s also interesting to note that a portion of this is financed by FHA loans, indicating that first-time homebuyers continue to be a strong force in this market.As we head into the spring home buying season, lower interest rates will support this demand. We expect this to help keep the market strong.”
MBA estimates that new single-family home sales have consistently been a leading indicator in the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Home Sales Report, with new single-family home sales in November 2023 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 677,000 units. It becomes.
New home sales estimates are derived using mortgage application information from BAS and assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors.
The seasonally adjusted forecast for November is a 5.3% decline from October’s pace of 715,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that new home sales will be 49,000 in November 2023, down 10.9% from October’s 55,000 new home sales.
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