Christian Democrats must not learn the wrong lessons from the two state elections by adopting far-right rhetoric.
Germany’s two most populous regions went to the polls last weekend. Election results in Bavaria and Hesse showed a clear increase in support for the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD). While the AfD has performed well in the past in the former East Germany, this success in the West shows how normalized the party has become in Germany.
Last week in Manchester, Britain’s Conservative Party was looking to shrink its support and deciding how warmly it would embrace the politics of Britain’s populist right. Germany’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) will review last weekend’s results and consider whether to follow a similar path.
violation brand mauer
Due to the country’s history, Germany’s main political parties have so far firmly ruled out cooperation with the AfD. By establishing brand mauer (Firewall) Germany’s political parties aim to keep the AfD out of power and prevent it from presenting itself as a legitimate democratic force.
However, Friedrich Merz, who will serve as CDU leader from 2022, has sent mixed messages. He has sought to sharpen the CDU’s conservative side, breaking away from the centrist approach of longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel. He recently accused asylum seekers of taking dental appointments from German citizens.
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Over the summer, Merz made statements suggesting he supported cooperation with the AfD at the local level, but later backtracked after a backlash from members of his own party. Nevertheless, in Thuringia, CDU parliamentarians passed a tax cut bill in September with the help of AfD votes.
The results of the elections in Bavaria and Hesse are likely to spur debate over how to most effectively counter the AfD. Bavaria’s largest party is the Christian Social Union (CSU), a sister party to the larger CDU that forms a group within the federation. federal parliament. During the election campaign, Bavarian state minister and president and CSU leader Markus Sƶder clashed with the populists. However, the CSU is seeking to count its 37% vote share (37.2% in the last election) as a success, which is the worst result for an election in Bavaria since the 1950s.
far-right rhetoric
The CSU currently forms a coalition government in Bavaria with the Free Voters of Bavaria (FW). FW is a conservative party that was originally a loose group of local politicians. The organization is led by Hubert Eywanger, who is notorious for leaning too far to the right. Although FW’s conservative positions are often similar to those of the CSU, Eiwanger’s rhetoric is sharper and often focuses on topics related to the “culture wars.”
In June last year, Iwanger adopted far-right rhetoric, saying in a speech to protesters that “the silent majority of this country has finally reached a point where we have to take back our democracy.” This led to severe criticism. In August, a German newspaper revealed that anti-Semitic leaflets were found in Iwangel’s backpack when he was a student.
Iwanger’s brother claimed responsibility for the leaflet, but his handling of the scandal nearly led to his removal as Bavaria’s deputy minister and president. But Mr. Sƶder ultimately let him stay, and Mr. Iwanger subsequently portrayed himself as the victim of a campaign against him.
This scandal doesn’t seem to have hurt forwards, rather the opposite. It received the second largest percentage of votes (increasing from 11.6 percent to 15.8 percent). Mr. Iwanger’s strategy was to appeal to the party’s voters by adopting the AfD’s issues and talking points.
Some CDU/CSU politicians may take his success as a sign that the way to deal with the AfD is to attack it from the right. But that would be wrong and dangerous reasoning.
While FW increased its votes, AfD also increased its votes (from 10.2% to 14.6%). Both FW and AfD gained support from voters who previously supported the CSU and other parties. Importantly, neither the CSU nor the FW was able to attract voters who supported the AfD in the last election.
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cracks occur
The Bavaria elections showed that far-right rhetoric can be made to look more respectable when Christian Democratic and conservative parties use far-right rhetoric. As France’s former far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen said, people will vote for the original rather than the copy. As then-CSU Secretary-General Markus Blume said in 2020, “You can’t beat the smell of a skunk.”
With several regional opinion polls and European Parliament elections to be held next year, Germany’s Christian Democrats will need to find a strategy to deal with the AfD that goes beyond simply adopting its rhetoric. As support for the far right grows across Europe, a process of normalization has begun. In many countries, far-right parties have successfully joined coalition governments and asserted themselves as legitimate political forces.
Germany has managed to maintain its firewall better than other countries, but cracks are appearing. Whether the Christian Democrats align with the AfD or simply steal its word, a more nationalist and populist Germany poses serious anxiety for its neighbors and potential turmoil within the European Union. right.
This was first published on the London School of Economics and Political Science’s EUROPP blog.
Christina Kessler is a fellow at the Center for European Reform and has worked in NATO’s policy planning department and the European Green Party. She holds a Master’s degree in European Politics and Governance Studies and Global Governance and Diplomacy from the University of Europe and the University of Oxford.