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Areas where sea surface temperature abnormalities are observed. credit: npj climate and atmospheric science (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8
A severe weather phenomenon called El Niño (Spanish for “Child of Christ”) occurs irregularly in the Pacific Ocean. Warm surface waters are first driven by trade winds toward the coasts of Indonesia and eastern Australia, then rush back eastward, with potentially devastating consequences.
Armin Bunde, a physicist at the Justus Liebig University of Giessen (JLU), together with Josef Rudescher and John Schellnhuber from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), developed a method that can be used to make predictions with high probability. was successfully developed for the first time. Accurately predict how dangerous an upcoming El Niño will be about a year in advance.Their results were published in the journal npj climate and atmospheric science.
There are two different forms of this weather phenomenon. In many cases, warm surface water flowing backwards only reaches the central Pacific Ocean. In this case, it is called Central Pacific El Niño. But in some cases, warm water reaches the eastern Pacific Ocean, where it subsequently warms significantly. This is Eastern Pacific El Niño.
Although both types can affect the climate, El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ocean is much more dangerous, as it can cause severe droughts, heavy rains, and flooding in many parts of the world. Additionally, warm water temperatures off the coasts of Peru and Chile cause most fish to flee to cooler areas, leaving fishing nets empty.
The method used by physicists in Giessen and Potsdam to predict the type of El Niño is based on an analysis of water temperatures in the western and central Pacific Ocean since 1950.
Until now, scientists have only been able to predict the occurrence of El Niño about a year in advance with the help of previously introduced climate networks. But new methods also make it possible to predict their type and, therefore, their potential for danger.
“We can now accurately predict the type of El Niño that will occur in the future with 86% accuracy,” says Joseph Rudescher, lead author of the study and a retired Ph.D. He is a disciple of Armin Bunde.
“This means that if we get a forecast from our climate network at the end of the year that an El Niño is on the way, and our new method shows a central Pacific El Niño, we already have some complete knowledge of the coming El Niño. However, if this method indicates an El Niño event in the eastern Pacific, extreme caution must be taken. Appropriate adaptation measures should be initiated early in the affected areas. Long lead times and high precision are key to preventing or at least mitigating potential disasters and saving lives.”
Armin Bunde also highlights the high quality of the new El Niño forecasting options. “Our early warning system clearly outperforms the latest generation of Earth system models in terms of advance warning time and accuracy. Using our method, we expect that this year’s Eastern Pacific El Niño will be predicted by 12/2022. We were already predicting it back in the month.”
For more information:
Josef Ludescher et al, predicting El Niño types well in advance of the spring predictability wall, npj climate and atmospheric science (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8
Magazine information:
npj climate and atmospheric science
Provided by Justus Liebig University of Giessen