BEIJING (AP) – The course of events in the year since President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping’s last meeting suggests cautious hope that luck will be upon them this time. But it also shows how easily they could go off course again, even if they reach an agreement.
U.S. and Chinese leaders will meet Wednesday while attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation annual summit in San Francisco.
The two leaders will meet following five months of intergovernmental talks that have accelerated in recent weeks and expanded to include cultural and business exchanges. In contrast, the November 2022 talks in Bali, Indonesia, were held after China suspended talks to express anger over then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
“This is on a stronger foundation than Bali,” said Jude Blanchett, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This meeting is taking place in somewhat favorable circumstances, both substantively and in terms of circumstances.”
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But tensions over Taiwan and a flare-up between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea mean that unforeseen incidents could delay efforts to improve relations, as an apparently errant Chinese balloon did earlier this year. It’s a solemn reminder of something.
Furthermore, the two governments are fundamentally at odds over technology, defense, trade, and Taiwan, and talks have not progressed yet. Last month, the Biden administration expanded restrictions on technology exports to China.
Recent experience shows that more frequent communications “does not preclude the continued expansion and escalation of U.S. war preparations and high-tech deterrence against China, and does not preclude China’s corresponding countermeasures, protests, and preparations.” It’s not something we can do,” said Shi Yinghong, an international relations expert. Professor, Renmin University of China;
Rather than achieving significant progress, Blanchett said the hope is that leaders will set the tone for meaningful dialogue on a range of issues in the coming months. “The reality is it’s likely to happen little by little, but we have a lot of speed bumps that could trip us both up at any time.”
A year in US-China relations
November 2022
November 14: Biden speaks for three hours with President Xi during the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Bali, Indonesia, marking his first direct meeting with a Chinese leader since taking office.
December
Dec. 6: The Biden administration approves the sale of more than $425 million in aircraft spare parts for Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets, C-130 transport aircraft, and other U.S.-supplied weapons systems.
January 2023
January 18: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Vice Prime Minister Liu He in Zurich. This will be the highest level of contact between the two countries since the Biden-Xi talks in Bali.
February
February 2: Reports of Chinese surveillance balloons flying over the United States turn U.S.-China relations upside down. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has canceled a planned visit to China.
February 18: Blinken tells senior Chinese foreign policy official Wang Yi at a meeting in Munich that China must never fly surveillance balloons over the United States again. Mr. Wang has criticized the United States for shooting down the plane.
February 21: The U.S. Congressional delegation meets with President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan and affirms the United States’ commitment to democracy and freedom.
march
March 1: U.S. approves $619 million sale of missiles, launchers, and other ammunition for Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets.
May
May 10-11: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan tells Wang during a meeting in Vienna that the US wants to move beyond the balloon incident.
May 26: Chinese fighter jets fly in front of a U.S. spy plane over the South China Sea in what the U.S. military calls an “unnecessarily aggressive maneuver.”
June
June 2-4: Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu refuses to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-La Defense Dialogue in Singapore. On June 3, a Chinese Navy ship crossed the path of an American destroyer in the Taiwan Strait.
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June 18-19: Mr. Blinken meets Mr. Xi and Mr. Wang in Beijing, becoming the first of four senior U.S. cabinet-level officials to visit over a two-month period.
July
July 8: Yellen travels to Beijing to meet with officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng, who took over the economic portfolio from former Vice Premier Liu He.
July 19: Chinese Vice President Han Zheng tells visiting US climate envoy John Kerry that China is ready to cooperate with the US to curb global warming as long as political demands are met. .
August
August 23: Biden administration approves $500 million sale of infrared search and track systems for F-16 fighter jets and related equipment to Taiwan.
Aug. 28-29: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo meets with senior officials in Beijing and rejects their calls for loosening U.S. restrictions on technology exports to China.
September
September 9: Mr. Biden had a brief meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who was attending the Group of 20 (G20) summit in India.
September 11: A Chinese naval force led by the aircraft carrier Shandong sails approximately 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Taiwan and conducts training exercises simulating attacks from the air, submarine, sea, and land.
September 16-17: Sullivan and Wang meet for 12 hours in Malta.
September 17: The Chinese military dispatches 103 aircraft to Taiwan in 24 hours, an unprecedented number. Chinese fighter jets fly to and return from the island almost every day.
September 18: Chinese Vice President Han Zheng meets with Blinken during the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
September 22: The US Treasury and the Chinese Ministry of Finance establish a working group to discuss economic and financial issues.
October
October 9: President Xi meets with a US Senate delegation led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. This is the first visit by a parliamentary delegation to China in four years.
October 17: The United States expands export controls to prevent China from acquiring advanced computer chips and manufacturing equipment.
October 18: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with President Xi Jinping in Beijing during an unusual overseas trip to attend China’s Belt and Road Forum. China and the United States are divided over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
October 22: A Chinese ship collides with two Philippine ships carrying supplies for the military in the South China Sea, and the US warns it will defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack.
October 24: A Chinese fighter jet flies within 10 feet (3 meters) of an American B-52 bomber flying over the South China Sea in a night intercept. Separately, China announced the dismissal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu without providing any explanation.
October 25: President Xi has a surprise meeting with California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is in China for a week to deepen cooperation on climate change.
October 27: As both sides finalize the details of the Biden-Xi summit, Mr. Wang meets with Mr. Biden as well as Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Blinken in Washington, D.C.Mr. Wang meets with Mr. Biden, Mr. Sullivan, and Mr. Blinken in Washington, D.C.
October 30: The United States sends senior Chinese officials from the Pentagon to the annual Xiangshan Forum on China’s security. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met with two American veterans who were part of the Flying Tigers unit that helped protect China from Japan in World War II.
November
November 2: U.S. agricultural industry organizations hold a forum in Beijing to strengthen trade in agricultural products. American Ballet Theater will tour China for the first time in 10 years.
November 4-7: Climate change envoy John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua meet in California ahead of the United Nations climate change conference, which begins in Dubai on November 30.
November 6: The United States and China hold arms control talks in Washington. The United States has expressed concern about China’s growing nuclear arsenal.
Nov. 9: Chinese and U.S. militaries discuss the search for bodies of American prisoners of war and missing persons via video link.
November 9-10: Vice Premier He Lifeng visited San Francisco and met with President Yellen, saying the meeting helped lay the foundation for a productive Biden-Xi summit.
November 10: Members of the Philadelphia Orchestra perform in Beijing to commemorate the 50th anniversary of their historic visit in 1973.
November 15: Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden hold a summit during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco.
Associated Press researcher Yu Bing in Beijing contributed to this report.